Roberta Haar explores what a Harris presidency could mean for Europe.
While we can only conjecture what kind of global leader U.S. Vice President and Democratic candidate for President Kamala Harris will be, we can say with a bit more confidence what her agenda might contain. Like Joe Biden, Harris must deal with the populist, protectionist, and anti-interventionist sentiments bubbling up in the American public today. Sentiments that Trump both ignited and exploited for political gain. The reality of the mood in the American electorate and the present threats on the global stage will affect Harris’ foreign policy agenda.
De-risking continues
Harris’ dealing with the populist, protectionist, and anti-interventionist sentiments bubbling up in the American public at the moment means that she will be more like Biden and less like the other recent Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, who both embraced the postwar liberal-free trade, multilateral paradigm. Likewise, Harris will certainly continue the Biden administration’s China policy, including de-risking supply chains and moving towards technology containment (which, incidentally, looks a lot like Trump’s policy). However, she might lessen the trade war. This speculation is based on the fact as a senator she criticized Trump’s approach towards Beijing, telling Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 vice presidential debate that Trump “lost that trade war” and that his tariffs harmed the American economy without achieving a rebalancing of the U.S.-China relationship.
A continuation of a de-risking policy also means that Harris is expected to maintain the current approach to technological security, striving for U.S. predominance in emerging technologies, which Europeans are sure to experience negatively. This will involve backing continued investments in the U.S. production of advanced technologies like semiconductors, resisting tech regulations primarily advocated by the European Union, and showing a readiness to blur the lines on issues ranging from data collection to the military applications of AI, all in the interest of national security.
Most lethal Fighting Force In The World
As regards global security, she is likely to echo Biden’s policy. At the 2022 Munich Security Conference, Harris said that NATO is “the greatest military alliance the world has ever seen;” and that America’s commitment to the Article 5 self-defense pledge is “ironclad” and “sacrosanct.” At the 2023 Ukraine Peace Summit, where she met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Harris called for a “just and lasting peace.” In her DNC speech, Harris said that she “would make sure that the U.S. would not abdicate global leadership.” She also spoke confidently about standing “strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.” These policy stances will greatly relieve U.S. allies in European capitals.
Thus overall, a Harris administration, (like its predecessor) is likely to bring darkness and light for Europeans as it follows a flexilateral approach that emphasizes U.S. interests in economic competitiveness while at the same time rebuilding multilateral security ties with traditional allies in Europe and Asia. Topics that the REMIT consortium is earnestly researching.
Will she win?
Knowing all these things about Harris leads to the next question, how likely is it that she will win? Unfortunately, the American electorate is rather siloed with people spending too much time in digital echo chambers where they are unlikely to run into opposing views. This means that the election will turn on a few places where silos are less established, namely, in the seven battleground states.
The narrowness of the population that will choose the next president is prompting European leaders to hedge their bets. Some 20 European ambassadors showed up to the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee to show their faces and pay fealty to Trump. Trump’s pick of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate bolstered fears that the party’s isolationist wing is in the ascendency. For example, during his 2022 campaign for Senate, Vance said he “couldn’t care less what happens in Ukraine.”
America, hopelessly divided
In previous years, after my summer trips to South Dakota, I wrote about deep divisions and about the people who asked me if the U.S. was on the brink of a civil war. My Dutch readers will be glad to know that this year tensions seemed lower, with more displays of neighborliness and generosity. I attended an American Legion meeting where the veterans began by singing me happy birthday and ended by honoring my mother for her 6,000 hours of volunteer work. For over 18 years, my mother has driven sick veterans to their medical appointments, and since retiring, she greets them every morning at the local veteran’s clinic. My mother believes that sacrifice and generosity are not for suckers.
These values and qualities are what will bring balance to American politics and help heal what often seems hopelessly divided. These values also form the foundation of the belief that America can be a force for good. If the next U.S. president embraces this simple idea—that America can be a force for good—it will be a significant first step towards being a moral and effective leader for Americans and their allies, including those in Europe.
As one final anecdotal note that Harris might be that effective leader, my younger son, who swore off voting after the Biden-Trump debate, filled out his absentee ballot application this week. Events these past few months seem to have inspired shifts in perspective, underscoring the impact of leadership that clearly resonates with younger voters.